All those who are tracking the Arab spring will notice the pattern used by the regimes to attempt to suppress the masses. Apparently those Arab Leagues summits weren’t as crappy as we thought, the same pattern was and is being used over and over again except in the case of Libya which is an attempt to suppress the Libyan population but also an experiment for the rest of Gaddafi’s colleagues, and if Gaddafi wins and manages to suppress the revolution then many of the Arab leaders will follow in his footsteps.
When the protests kick off, introduce the police and security forces and order them to fire tear gas, rubber bullets, water cannons can be effective for a while, and occasional live ammunition could be fruitful (If you are Gaddafi all of the above doesn’t apply to you, for humane reasons you skip all of the above to use Anti-Aircraft and live ammunition because using tear gas is a crime). On the political level send out a low profile politician to explain that the protests in your country are not important and won’t lead to the regime being overthrown because your country is not ( and here you mention countries where the revolution was successful). If the number of casualties is great then blame that on non-existent thugs who show up from nowhere with the sole purpose of killing the protesters (If you are Gaddafi then blame it on the protesters and claim they are under hallucination pills provided to them by Al-Qaeda), if the protesters manage to take over police stations and occupy important facilities then it’s advised that you remove all policemen and state security personnel from the streets, while releasing all the criminals from prisons, remember political prisons must be kept in.
In case the protests don’t end and this is the most likely scenario then it’s time to address the nation (If you are Gaddafi you can send your son to replace you), in your speech try to explain what happened in week one, explain that you ordered the security forces to make sure the protesters are safe, and announce that you want a new government formed as a solution to the protesters demands. Try to warn the protesters that if you’re gone Islamists can take over and make their life even worse. Meanwhile send snipers to building tops and order them to fire at will. Cutting the means of communication can be helpful and make sure foreign press are far from the main protests, if Al-Jazeera is focusing a lot on your country you earn the right to blame them for what is happening and that they have a hidden agenda.
At this stage if protests are not over then you have a problem, and you can resort to plan B which consists of bringing all the police officers you took from the streets and sending them to protests supporting you and your regime, you are allowed at this point to hire thugs as well, if you manage to bring a couple of thousands then you can try sending them to attack the protesters (using camels and horses maybe helpful). Another speech maybe good at this point trying to blame all of the events occurring in your country are done by outside forces (blaming it on Israel, USA, or Iran maybe good). If you are Gaddafi all of the above doesn’t apply to you, you may continue shooting and killing your own people and telling them you’re no president to resign.
If all of the above measurements fail, then it’s time for your last speech praising yourself, mention your history of serving your country and emphasis that you only wanted to serve your country the best you could, while the speech is being prepared pack your suitcases withdraw all your fortune from the banks, and pick a place to run away to, after you’re gone rumors that your health is bad and that you’re sick may drive the people to sympathize with you.
The state television must and at all times show pictures that shows that the country is fine and nothing wrong is going on, that the protesters got paid to protest and had KFC meals, and keep emphasizing that they have hidden agendas.
Even if you do everything mentioned you will still fail, because the will of the people is much stronger than you and they will eventually remove you whether you like it or not.
If you are Gaddafi and you’re reading this, any of the above doesn’t apply to you.
The Arab Spring